Using the Earthquake Machine to model earthquake predictions.
In the experiment where students calculate the seismic moment, they also use this information to examine the predictability of the next "big" one based on the law of averages.
Earthquake Intervals >7.5 Mag - Sendai Japan Region
Does the Sendai Japan region experience regular or irregular earthquake intervals - and can we use this information to predict the next big one?
Use this information to find the average interval of earthquakes that are greater than 8 for the Sandai Japan region.
Use this information to find the average interval of earthquakes that are greater than 8 for the Sandai Japan region.
Does the Sendai Japan region experience regular intervals or irregular intervals of large 6.0 or greater earthquakes in their history? Can we use this information to predict the next "big one"?
Statistic Interval Analysis of Earthquakes by Magnitude
Data Analysis: It appears that Japan has very regular Earthquakes if we examine all earthquakes that are greater than or equal to 6.0. However, looking only at 7.0 Magnitude or greater - it appears slightly irregular with moments of larger Earthquakes. It does appear that the Sendai region may experience another larger 7.+ earthquake fairly soon as Japan seems to be very seismically active, but it is hard to predict when the next large one will occur. One of the patterns that I see is that we have a large one, then it goes down in magnitude, then up before a large earthquake event. However, there was a lull for a long period of time before the large earthquake that occurred in 2011. What this means is that Japan can expect to experience fairly large earthquakes (7.5+) fairly regularly - however, if there is a lull period consisting of smaller earthquakes (7.5-) - expect it to follow up with a much larger earthquake. To be precise as to when that will occur, the law of averages works against the predictor, therefore, it is difficult to determine when a city should be evacuated based on averages alone. What this means is that it takes time for it to bind up before the earthquake event. What my data shows is that If there is a long period of small earthquakes, then a much larger one is looming overtime because it's taking its time to build up enough elastic energy to overcome the frictional forces and/or breaking the strength of the rocky material to allow the Pacific plate to slide down and move. There was a video that discussed the speed The next area of study in my research would be to see if the speed of sound does travel through rocky material faster as it becomes compressed. |
Can We Predict Earthquakes?
Can we predict earthquakes? For many years Geologists have been looking for a way to predict earthquakes so that we can minimize the loss of human life & property. Here are two videos that discuss the difficulty and possibilities of predicting an earthquake.
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(See this video on PBS NOVA ScienceNow on how Geologists may have stumbled on an Earthquake predictability factor)
There was a video that discussed the speed The next area of study in my research would be to see if the speed of sound does travel through rocky material faster as it becomes compressed.
There was a video that discussed the speed The next area of study in my research would be to see if the speed of sound does travel through rocky material faster as it becomes compressed.
Video Reference:
Bond, C et al (2013) "Forecasting Earthquakes" Excerpted from NOVA scienceNOW: "What's the Next Big Thing?", PBS, WGBH Educational Foundation. <http://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/nvsn5.sci.earth.forecast/forecasting-earthquakes/#support-materials> last retrieved February 26, 2015
Bond, C et al (2013) "Forecasting Earthquakes" Excerpted from NOVA scienceNOW: "What's the Next Big Thing?", PBS, WGBH Educational Foundation. <http://www.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/nvsn5.sci.earth.forecast/forecasting-earthquakes/#support-materials> last retrieved February 26, 2015